SAM Burgess must balance risk with reward when plotting his team selection for Friday’s clash with London Broncos.

Going into the final round of regular season fixtures, The Wire know third place is their most likely finish but that their chances of snatching second spot are still very much alive.

Their fate is out of their hands – they must win and hope Hull KR slip up at home to Leeds Rhinos, all while achieving a 17-point swing in points difference – but they have at least done enough to keep the Robins honest.

Here, we go through a few things that may be in the head coach’s mind as he ponders which team to put out there…

How much will Matt Dufty be used?

Burgess confirmed after Saturday’s victory at Huddersfield Giants that his full-back will play some part this week having completed his recovery from knee surgery, although how much he will play was still being decided at that point.

It may be a similar scenario to when The Wire visited London last month, with Dufty starting and Cai Taylor-Wray stationed on the bench to come on at a certain point in the game, or vice versa.

Of course, there is a risk involved with bringing him back at the bottom end of the initial four to six-week recovery timescale, given any recurrence of the injury would likely rule him out of at least one do-or-die play-off game.

However, Burgess has clearly decided that he would rather see the Australian get some minutes into his legs before the play-offs than send him into the post-season undercooked.

Having missed more than a month of action, Matt Dufty is set to return against LondonHaving missed more than a month of action, Matt Dufty is set to return against London (Image: John Clifton/SWpix.com)

Could fringe players get a chance?

There are a few younger members of Burgess’ squad who have served him well when called upon this year and are waiting for another chance to shine.

The likes of Adam Holroyd, Arron Lindop, Max Wood and Tom Whitehead have all been in 21-man squads of late without getting on the field, and Friday could well be their last chance of the season to see some action.

Burgess may be wary of making too many changes – more on that in a moment – but particularly in the pack, there are options there should he wish to freshen things up.

Adam Holroyd's last first-team appearance came at London last monthAdam Holroyd's last first-team appearance came at London last month (Image: Alex Broadway/SWpix.com)

The dangers of making too many changes

We have already seen Paul Rowley take a meat cleaver to his Salford squad for their trip to Wigan Warriors on Thursday, making 17 changes to his 21 from last week with their play-off place secure despite the fact defeat could see them concede a home eliminator tie.

It appears unlikely that Burgess will do similar, and the messages he has given off about what is on the line have been somewhat mixed.

After Saturday’s game, he all but admitted defeat in terms of finishing second but has also been quoted as saying that he will be going “full steam ahead” in the remainder of the regular season whatever is on the line in order to fine-tune his side’s preparations.

So with all of that in mind, plus the knowledge that any injuries or, perhaps more pertinently, suspensions incurred would rule players out of at least some of the play-offs, which way will he go?

He will no doubt be conscious, however, of what happened in their last meeting with London, when he did make several changes to his side, resulting in a nervy and below-par performance despite coming away victorious.

London will put up much more of a fight than Huddersfield did last week and they have their own target to play for as they look to avoid finishing bottom, so will that sway Burgess more towards sending out a full-strength side?