POLLS suggest Warrington will be represented at the next election by Labour MPs, and one Tory.

The country is due for a general election by January 2025, with many suggesting that the most likely time for an election will be October this year.

This will see an election first for Warrington, given that Lymm will no longer be represented by the Warrington South constituency.

Warrington Guardian: Lymm used to be included in Warrington South, Andy Carter's constituencyLymm used to be included in Warrington South, Andy Carter's constituency (Image: Andy Carter)

Lymm will now be covered by the constituency of Tatton, which means that all of Warrington will now be represented by three MPs; Tatton, Warrington North, and Warrington South.

According to a poll commissioned by Conservative donors, carried out by YouGov and the Daily Telegraph, the Tories are on course for a major election loss, akin to 1997's results.

1997 saw Sir Tony Blair's Labour Party win a landslide majority, decimating Sir John Major's Conservatives.

YouGov's poll surveyed 14,000 voters, and issued predictions for each of the country's 650 constituencies.

Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Lord David Frost - a Conservative peer - said the poll’s findings were 'stunningly awful' and that the party was facing 'a 1997-style wipeout – if [the Conservatives] are lucky.'

Warrington Guardian: Ms Nichols has been reselected to fight for the Labour Party in Warrington NorthMs Nichols has been reselected to fight for the Labour Party in Warrington North (Image: Newsquest)

Lord Frost added that the only way the party could avoid defeat was 'to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more.'

In terms of the poll's predictions for Warrington's constituencies, the findings were as follows:

  • Warrington North - Labour hold (47 per cent)
  • Warrington South - Labour gain (49 per cent)
  • Tatton - Conservatives hold (36 per cent)

In terms of how closely-run the election will be in each of the constituencies, in Warrington North it is predicted that the Tories will win 25 per cent of the vote, and the Tories will win 29 per cent in Warrington South.

Labour is predicted to win 31 per cent of the vote in Tatton at the next election, it is predicted.

As it stands, Warrington North will be contested by incumbent MP Charlotte Nichols for the Labour Party, and Warrington South by Cllr Sarah Hall is also Labour's pick - though the Tories have not yet announced who will be standing in these elections.

Current Warrington South MP Andy Carter has said he is not seeking reelection in the constituency for the Tories.

Due to the changes in the electoral boundaries since 2019, Warrington South is now the Conservative's top target seat in the north west.

The election is being held using new constituency boundaries, which means the results cannot be compared directly with what happened at the last general election in 2019.

In order to measure how well the parties do at the next election, and to determine which seats they need to win to form a government, a set of notional results for the 2019 election has been calculated to show what would have happened if that contest had taken place using the new boundaries.

These notional results have been compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, on behalf of the PA news agency, the BBC, ITN and Sky News.

The lists of target seats are based on the size of the swing needed to gain the seat based on the notional outcome in 2019.

It puts Warrington South as the Tories top target seat in the north. The party would need a 0.06 percentage points swing to win it.

Interestingly, the analysis shows Labour would have won Warrington South in 2019 if the boundaries were what they are now.