Labour set to win both Warrington seats at election

Since then, there have been a handful of byelections for seats in the House of Commons.

Most recently, ex-Warrington Hospital nurse Nadine Dorries resigned from her Mid Bedfordshire seat, which triggered a byelection at the same time as a byelection in Tamworth.

Both of these seats previously were held by strong Conservative majorities, though were claimed by the Labour Party in the most recent bout of voting.

Looking ahead to the next general election - which must take place before January 2025 - what can residents expect to happen in Warrington, if current trends are followed?

According to the pollsters at Electoral Calculus, Warrington can expect to see a landslide for the Labour Party, which is predicted to secure both of the town's seats at the next election.

Warrington South

Andy Carter won the Warrington South seat in 2019, when Boris Johnson was leading his party (Image: Andy Carter MP)

Currently held by Conservative MP Andy Carter, Warrington South has a history of swinging back and forth between Labour and the Tories.

It was held by David Mowat for the Conservatives until ex-Mayor of Warrington Faisal Rashid clinched the seat in 2017.

This was a short-lived tenure for the Labour Party, however, when Andy Carter won the seat with 45.5 per cent of the vote share in 2019.

At the 2019 election, Labour secured 42.3 per cent of the vote share in Warrington South, and the Liberal Democrats earned 9.3 per cent.

Looking ahead, the Labour Party's candidate for the seat Cllr Sarah Hall is predicted to win 52.4 per cent of the vote, with the Tories set for a huge loss, decreasing to 26.5 per cent.

Andy Carter MP has announced that he will not be standing to win the seat again at the next election, and was recently unsuccessful in his bid to be named the Tory candidate for the seat of Waveney, which borders Suffolk and Norfolk.

Electoral Calculus says that Labour has a 94 per cent chance of winning the Warrington South seat at the next general election.

Warrington North

Ms Nichols won a narrow majority of the Warrington North seat in 2019 (Image: Newsquest)

Held by Charlotte Nichols MP since the 2019 election, Warrington North has always been a Labour Party stronghold.

However, the Tories came close to winning the seat in 2019, with there being no incumbent MP due to Labour's Helen Jones stepping down from the position she had held since 1997.

Labour won 20,611 votes (44.2 per cent) in 2019, with the Conservatives nipping at their heels - Tory candidate Wendy Maisey OBE won 19,102 votes, equating 40.9 per cent of the vote.

At the same time, the Liberal Democrats earned 6.6 per cent of the vote.

Looking at the next election, Electoral Calculus says that Labour has a 98 per cent chance of retaining the seat.

The pollsters predict that Labour will secure 56.1 per cent of the vote share, with the Tories slumping to a share of 22.5 per cent - the Lib Dems are set for a slight decrease, too, down to 6.5 per cent.

All information is taken from Electoral Calculus as of October 20.