Polls show Labour on track to clinch Warrington South seat

Many saw the elections as a bellwether that could indicate how the country would look if a general election were called in the near future.

As it stands, the country is not set to go to the polls until December 2024, which is five years after the last general election was held.

How will Warrington look at the next general election? (Image: Newsquest)

However, Warrington did not go to the ballot box in the council elections this year, as the town's elections are held on a different timetable, with the next bout of all-out council elections not due in the town until May 2024.

This is because Warrington holds all-out council elections every four years - the last elections took place in 2021, as the 2020 election was pushed back due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

2023's local council elections spread some confusion among voters in Warrington, given the highly-publicised deadline for voters to apply for photographic voter ID.

This is a new measure that has been introduced by the Government in order to avoid cases of voter fraud.

However, as Warrington was not an area that was due a local election, voters in the town needn't have worried about applying for voter ID ahead of this year's elections that took place on Thursday, May 4.

That being said, it is interesting to wonder exactly how Warrington would fare if there were a general election called in the near future.

Warrington North - Labour HOLD

Charlotte Nichols is the current MP for Warrington North (Image: Parliament UK)

The seat of Warrington North has been held by a Labour Party candidate at every general election since the seat was created, in 1983.

At the 2019 election, the Labour Party's candidate was Charlotte Nichols, who was fighting to keep the seat in her party's control, following the retirement of the incumbent Helen Jones.

Ms Nichols won the seat at the 2019 election with a majority of 1,509 votes - the Labour candidate took 44.2 per cent of the vote.

According to pollsters Electoral Calculus, Ms Nicholes is predicted to strengthen her grasp on the Warrington North seat - the polling site predicts she will increase her share of the vote to 54.5 per cent at the next general election.

The polling site also suggests that the Conservative Party's share of the vote in Warrington North will drop from 40.9 per cent in 2019 to 26.1 per cent at the next election.

Electoral Calculus suggests that the Liberal Democrats' vote share will decrease from 6.6 per cent in 2019 to 4.8 per cent at the next vote; whereas the Green Party is predicted to increase its share from 2.7 per cent to 4.5 per cent.

Given that Warrington North has always been in Labour's hands, it would not be surprising to see the party maintain control of the town's northern constituency.

The Conservative Party candidate for the Warrington North seat at the next election has not yet been announced.

Warrington South - Labour GAIN

Warrington South is currently held by Andy Carter (Image: Parliament UK)

This seat has tended to be a more fiercely-fought battleground for the two main political parties, swinging back and forth between the Tories and Labour for a number of years.

Since its creation in 1983, Warrington South has been batted from the Conservatives to Labour and vice versa; it has been held by the Tories at five elections (1983, 1987, 2010, 2015, 2019) and Labour at five elections (1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2017).

In 80 per cent of these elections, Warrington South's seat has been won by the party that later becomes the largest group in Parliament - the only outliers being 1992 and 2017.

As per Electoral Calculus, incumbent Conservative MP Andy Carter is set for a landslide defeat in Warrington South - the pollsters are predicting that Mr Carter will see his share of the vote decrease from 45.5 per cent in 2019 to 31.3 per cent at the next election.

Mr Carter earned a majority of 2,010 votes at the last election.

Cllr Sarah Hall will be the Labour Party's candidate for the Warrington South seat at the next election (Image: Cllr Sarah Hall)

Warrington South's Labour candidate Cllr Sarah Hall is on track to win the seat, with a predicted vote share of 50.4 per cent - an increase on former incumbent Labour MP Faisal Rashid's 2019 share of 42.3 per cent.

The polling site suggests that the Liberal Democrats will win 6.2 per cent of the vote (down from 9.3 per cent in 2019) and the Greens are predicted to take 3.6 per cent of the vote (up from zero in 2019).

All polling information has been taken from Electoral Calculus.